When a Halifax byelection could be called and what Trudeau must ponder

Halifax MP Andy Fillmore’s departure from federal politics adds to a growing list of byelections that need to be called by the Trudeau government.

Earlier this week, Fillmore announced he will not be returning to the House of Commons in the fall. Fillmore, who was first elected as MP in 2015, is expected to run for mayor of Halifax in this October’s municipal elections.

In his final address in the House, Fillmore said his sights are set on the future and there is more work to do for Halifax.

The prime minister has to call three byelections, including Fillmore’s.

“There’s the question of whether he has these things all at once, whether he wants to space them out. And I think that’s probably going to depend on what we see in Saint Paul’s,” Dalhousie University political science professor Lori Turnbull said, referring to the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection scheduled for June 24.

According to Elections Canada, a byelection must be called within six months of the official resignation notice — which, in Fillmore’s case, hasn’t happened yet.

“That little trigger that would set the window for the byelection to be called hasn’t started yet, so I expect it would happen sometime soon,” Elections Canada spokesperson Matthew McKenna said.

The federal riding of Halifax has been Liberal or NDP since 1988, when Liberal MP Mary Clancy took over from Conservative MP Stewart McInnes.

“It’s really a three-party race, neck and neck,” said Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research.

“We’ve got 31 per cent of HRM residents say they would vote Conservative, 30 per cent would vote Liberal and 32 per cent NDP.”

Turnbull believes all eyes will be on the byelection, which could signal things to come.

“A possible upswing for the NDP would be particularly damaging for the Liberals as they try to build toward the next election,” she said.

0:46 Liberal MP Andy Fillmore considers run for Halifax mayor

— with a file from The Canadian Press and Global News’ Rebecca Lau